How many people need to get sick for the pandemic to end

Scientists at Stockholm University suggest that in order to achieve herd immunity from coronavirus infection, 43% of the world's population needs to be ill. An alternative would be to vaccinate the same number of people. To estimate the rate of development of immunity against the new virus, scientists have resorted to mathematical formulas.

According to British mathematician F. Ball, population activity will help cope with COVID-19. Otherwise, herd immunity cannot be earned. In order for people to develop protective reactions in the body, it is necessary not to strain the situation, but, on the contrary, to remove restrictive measures. "From the point of view of improving the current situation and caring for the health of the population, this is the most reasonable way," says the professor, "Removing the quarantine is the most natural way to fight the pandemic."

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Experts in many countries consider this approach is reasonable and theoretically sound, but difficult to reproduce, given that there is currently no vaccine for coronavirus. Scientists believe that it will take several more months to develop.

“Herd immunity is created not by the number of infected people, but by mass vaccination,” says the American doctor D. Nazaryan. “If there is no vaccine, it will lead to an overload in the healthcare system. When too many people become infected at once, there is a shortage of hospital beds, health workers and ventilators. If we remove the restrictive measures, then we will get all over the world what we saw recently in Italy ”.

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